From Public opinion

Confluence

Confluence. [kän-flü-ən(t)s]. n. A coming or flowing together, meeting, or gathering at one point.

Water is a big deal in Pittsburgh. Pennsylvania is a swing state. Am I being to subtle?

More evidence that, in a politically divided nation, water unites

Last month I argued that water ought to be the centerpiece of the Biden Administration’s environmental policy. President-elect Biden has announced climate change as the main pillar of its policy agenda, but the nation is deeply divided on climate, and so lasting progress will be difficult or impossible on greenhouse gasses. Meanwhile, protecting water is one of very few significant areas of public policy where the country is united, not polarized. That gives the president-elect and congressional leaders from both parties an opportunity to build a coalition for significant legislation on water. The idea seems to have struck a chord with many folks*, and it's picked up some momentum. More and more voices joining the call to rally to water policy when the new Administration and 117th Congress take office.

More data!

Encouraged by the response to my last post, I went casting about for more recent data on broad public support for water policy (my Texas A&M data were gathered in 2015). Happily, the 2020 Value of Water survey (VOW) by the U.S. Water Alliance asked about both climate and water. The national poll let respondents express their attitudes on a four point scale from “extremely important/concerned” to “not too important/concerned.”

The results are remarkably consistent with my earlier findings:

N=454. Thin bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Once again, there’s a familiar stark gap between Democrats and Republicans on climate, but virtually no difference on questions about drinking water and water pollution.** And again, respondents who identify as strong Republicans express very little concern for climate change, but very strong concern for both drinking water and water pollution.

City water, country water

More than twenty years of experience and gigabytes of data have also convinced me that water also can unite urban and rural interests for leaders who want to build political bridges. And what do you know? The VOW survey also gathered data on where respondents live:

N=499. Thin bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Once again, we see a significant divide between urban and rural folks on climate, but virtual unanimity on water.*** Strident (and likely futile) efforts by the Biden Administration to push climate initiatives in Congress would only deepen the divide between rural and urban America. But initiatives to deliver safer drinking water and fight water pollution could bring together urban and rural interests.

Art of the possible

Meaningful, enduring public policies require building coalitions across diverse segments of the American public. If the incoming White House and congressional leaders are serious about solving problems, they’ll do well to work on water. People across the political spectrum want safe, great-tasting tap water, and fishable/swimmable rivers, lakes, and oceans. The impact of good water policy is immediate and tangible. Landmark legislative wins are on the table for politicians with the vision and courage to pursue them.

But more than that, progress on water would help heal the nation’s political wounds, and demonstrate to a wary public that the institutions of the Republic can still fulfill the promise of a better life.

 

*I had a nice conversation on KJZZ in Phoenix on this topic.

**These relative partisan gaps remain in regression models that control for age, gender, race, and ethnicity. 

***These relative urban/rural differences remain after controlling for party identification age, gender, race, and ethnicity.

And remember: an awful lot of good water policy is also good climate policy. If you care about the planet more than you care about branding, talk less about CO2 and more about H2O.

Art of the Possible

Why water should be the Biden Administration’s top environmental priority

Evidently the president-elect is confident managing stormwater.

The Biden administration’s environmental policy priorities are likely to be quite different from the Trump administration’s, and the impending change at the White House has visions of sweeping new federal greenhouse gas policies dancing in environmentalists’ heads. But sober political observers know that the prospects of significant climate policy—let alone a Green New Deal—are virtually zero so long as Republicans maintain a majority in the Senate.* A trillion-dollar infrastructure and/or bailout package for local water infrastructure are also probably non-starters. Those are going to be bitter pills for many of the President-Elect’s supporters to swallow. It’s also why the Biden administration should make water, not climate, the centerpiece of its environmental agenda when it takes office in January.

Everybody cares about water

Once upon a time, environmental protection wasn’t an especially partisan issue. Indeed, most major milestones in U.S. environmental policy were signed into law by Republican Presidents.** But over the past 40 years environmental policy has become increasingly partisan at the national level, with Democrats widely perceived as more protective and Republicans less protective of environmental quality. Perhaps the most divisive environmental issue of all is climate change. When global warming entered the national political consciousness in the early 1990s there wasn’t much difference between partisans on the issue. A generation’s worth of general party polarization has changed all that, however, and today Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided even over the basic facts about climate policy. Today climate policy is nearly as divisive as abortion or guns in our national politics. Environmental activists clammor loudest for a big federal greenhouse gas program, but it is difficult to imagine any major legislation branded as a “climate” bill clearing the Senate’s 60 vote hurdle with so many red states lined up against it. 

Water is different. It seems that radical polarization hasn’t yet contaminated our most essential resource. Unlike climate threats, where risks seem distant and causal linkages uncertain, risks to water quality are immediate, the causes known, and the effects tangible. It’s no coincidence that the partisan divide on water is much narrower than it is on climate. A few years ago, I helped the Texas A&M Institute for Science, Technology, and Public Policy run a national public opinion survey on environmental issues. We asked respondents to rate their level of concern about issues on a 0-10 point scale, with 10 meaning “extremely concerned” and zero meaning “not at all concerned.” As you’d expect, we found consistent partisan gaps across issues. But one really striking finding stood out to me and has stuck with me ever since. Check this out:

N=1,439. Thin bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

The public opinion gap between Democratic and Republican concern is greatest for climate change and smallest for water quality.  What’s more, the average Republican falls on the “not concerned” end of the spectrum on climate change (4.3), but well into the “concerned” range on water (6.4). On reflection, that result shouldn’t be surprising: Republicans like to drink water and flush their toilets just as much as Democrats do, and I’d guess that a good number of America’s hunters and sportfishermen tend to vote with the GOP.

What’s more, the nation’s most severe drinking water, water pollution, and infrastructure affordability problems are in rural America. Big cities like Flint, Detroit and Newark tend to get the most attention from reporters and politicians, but the water challenges of rural communities are in many cases much more daunting.

Manny's electoral map.

Joe, Kamala, and the 117th

These political conditions are ripe for a bipartisan, urban-rural coalition to improve the nation’s drinking water and water quality. Rather than beating their heads against the stone wall of a GOP Senate in vain pursuit of climate policy, the Biden Administration ought to focus its legislative efforts on systemic reforms to improve the water sector. Vice President-elect Harris has been working on water issues actively since joining the Senate, so she’ll come into office with some expertise on the issue and is poised to be an effective champion. Major legislative victories in the 117th Congress won’t come easy for anyone, but water policy offers perhaps the best chance to get something big done on the environment.

And guess what? It turns out that lots of the things we do to protect water quality (e.g., aquifer protection, watershed management, wetland restoration, sustainable agriculture, etc.) also reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change impacts. So a big victory on water policy would be a big victory for climate policy, too.***

 



*It’s technically possible for Democrats to pull even in the Senate with a sweep of Georgia’s special Senate elections. New Vice President Harris would then break the leadership tie and give Democrats control of the 117th Senate. My political science spidey sense tells me this is an unlikely scenario.

**Lincoln created the first national park when he signed the Yosemite Grant Act in 1864. Theodore Roosevelt established the U.S. Forest Service, signed five more national parks into law and established 19 national monuments. Nixon established the Environmental Protection Agency and signed the Clean Air Act. Ford signed the Safe Drinking Water Act and RCRA, and Bush41 championed the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments that created the first cap-and-trade system for managing air pollution.

These partisan gaps remain in regression models that control for age, gender, race, ethnicity, and income.

***Just don’t say that part out loud in red states.

Race, Ethnicity, and Water Service Experiences

Black, White, and Hispanic Americans experience water utility service differently

These women all seem happy with their water. But what discontents lurk behind those smiles?

Over the past couple of years there’s been a growing recognition that drinking water policy is an environmental justice issue in the United States; my research with David Switzer showed racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic disparities in drinking water quality at the community-level—findings that have since been affirmed by other researchers. Identifying racial and ethnic disparities in drinking water service at the individual level is harder. Do people of different races and ethnicities experience water service in markedly different ways?

A few months ago I posted some findings from a Texas A&M Institute for Science, Technology & Public Policy (ISTPP) national public opinion survey. The survey’s carefully-designed sample of nearly 2,000 individuals is representative of the US population, and so offers an extraordinary look at public perceptions about water service. Earlier posts reported on attitudinal differences between water professionals and the general public, how gender predicts opinion on water issues, and the correlation between income and water service experiences.

Today I’m looking at race and ethnicity.

Water service problems

The ISTPP survey asked respondents to say whether they had experienced specific kinds of problems with their drinking water with a simple yes/no answer:

  • The water does not taste good (31.5% yes)
  • The water is cloudy or dirty (19.5%)
  • Water pressure is low (29.2%)
  • The water causes sickness (3.8%)
  • Water billing or payment problems (10.2%)

56.7% of respondents reported experiencing none of these problems. It’s important to remember that the survey captures perceived water service problems, not actual problems—for example, we don’t know whether a respondent actually experienced low water pressure, we only know whether a respondent thinks (s)he experienced a problem. Happily, a large majority of respondents said that they had not experienced each of these problems.

Racial disparities

Less happily, there were notable racial differences in the “yes” responses across all five items, and ethnic differences in two of them. The graph below shows the percent reporting each type of water service problem for Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White respondents (vertical spikes represent 95% confidence intervals).*

It’s not a pretty picture. A generally ordered relationship emerges, with Black respondents reporting the most water problems, followed by Hispanics, with non-Hispanic Whites reporting the fewest in four of the five categories. Non-Hispanic whites were most likely to report no problems at all.

Black respondents reported experiencing water service problems much more frequently than did respondents of other races across all five categories. The differences between Black and non-Hispanic White respondents were large and statistically significant in all categories. For example, 37% of Black respondents reported experiencing low water pressure, compared with 28% of non-Hispanic Whites. 29% of Blacks reported cloudy or dirty water, compared with just 18% of non-Hispanic Whites.

The disparities between Hispanic and non-Hispanic White respondents were less stark, although significantly more Hispanic respondents reported experiencing water bill problems and illness compared with non-Hispanic Whites.

How much do racial/ethnic patterns just reflect income?

Since race and ethnicity correlate with income in the United States, it’s possible that the racial/ethnic disparities are just artifacts of income disparities I discussed in my earlier post. Statistical modeling can help tease out the degree to which race/ethnicity relates to water service experiences after accounting for income. So I fitted logistic regression models to identify correlates of water service experiences by race and ethnicity, while accounting for income, age, urban/rural location and region. These models estimate the likelihood of experiencing each of the five service problems, or no problems. The graph below shows the results, with estimates of racial/ethnic groups at an annual income of $27,500–a relatively low income where we’d expect problems to be most frequent:

When adjusting for income, age, and region, the racial and ethnic disparities persist, but are less pronounced and in most cases not statistically significant by the conventional standard. So while there are clear racial and ethnic differences in water service experiences in the United States, these data suggest that much–but probably not all–of those differences reflect racial/ethnic income disparities.

 

 

*The survey captured only two racial categories (Black & White) and one ethnic category (Hispanic), so we can’t analyze other racial or ethnic groups.